EU Referendum Betting: Will Britain Vote for Brexit?

Updated Thursday 23rd June 2016, 12:48 PM

Months of campaigning and debate will come to an end this Thursday as the people of the UK decide on the country’s future in the European Union. It has been billed as perhaps the most important vote that Britons will ever cast and traditional party politics have taken a back seat as key figures from Westminster, businesses and the wider world have stepped forward to come out for and against Brexit.

The referendum has also attracted the sort of betting interest normally only associated with major sporting events as punters flock to their local bookmakers or an online sportsbook to make their predictions - both on the outcome of this week’s vote and the possible consequences, such as the UK’s economy and next Prime Minister.

How the Bookies See it

  • EU referendum: Remain 1/4, Leave 3/1 - Paddy Power
  • UK to enter recession by the end of 2017: No 1/3, Yes 9/4 - William Hill
  • Remain vote percentage: 50-55% 13/8, 55-60% 9/4, 45-50% 9/2 - Totesport
  • Next Conservative leader - Boris Johnson 15/8, George Osborne 5/1, Theresa May 5/1 - Coral’s view

Opinion polls have always suggested that the outcome of the Brexit vote will be close, but the odds have fluctuated dramatically over the past few months and the current price of around 1/4 on ‘Remain’ points to a more decisive victory. A vote to remain in Europe has always been regarded as the likely outcome, and the question for many punters will therefore be whether the bookies have called it right or whether the polls are more accurate and there could be a late twist.

Opinion polls at last year’s general election were a long way wide of the mark as they predicted a very close contest between Labour and the Conservatives before the Tories ended up increasing their number of seats to gain an overall majority. As the final arguments are made, there could well be an element of undecided voters sticking with what they know rather than voting for what could be seen as a potentially riskier vote to ‘Leave’. A bet on the ‘Remain’ vote percentage could therefore be a lucrative market, with 55-60% looking good at 9/4 with Ladbrokes and possibly even 60-65% at 9/1 with Betfred.

A convincing victory for ‘Remain’ would also help to ease the pressure on Prime Minister David Cameron, who has been told by some critics that his position would be untenable in the event of Brexit. Boris Johnson is the current favourite to succeed him as the Tory leader, but he has campaigned to leave so the odds could change significantly if the UK decides to stay. It may therefore be worth a punt on George Osborne at 6/1 with Ladbrokes to be the next Conservative leader.

  •’s top tip: Remain vote percentage 55-60% - 9/4 at Ladbrokes

*Please note, odds may fluctuate before the EU referendum

Last Updated: Thursday, 23 June 2016 12:48:28+00:00
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