How the Bookies see it
- Winner: Spain 23/20, Draw 19/10, Italy 10/3 - William Hill
- First Goalscorer: Morata 5/1, Aduriz 6/1, Pelle 15/2 - Paddy Power
- Correct Score: Spain 1-0 22/5, 1-1 6/1, Italy 1-0 15/2 - BetVictor
- Spain beat the Czech Republic with a late goal before destroying Turkey, only to be pegged back by a defiant display by Croatia, who grabbed a 2-1 win after the holders had taken an early lead. Nikola Kalinić of Croatia scored the first goal Spain keeper David de Gea had conceded in nearly 500 minutes of international football during that game.
- Italy have been similarly mean in defence, beating Belgium and Sweden without conceding. A late Robbie Brady goal for Ireland consigned the Azzurri to a defeat in their third match, but they had rested a number of key players in anticipation of the knockout stages.
Although this is likely to be a fascinating tie between two footballing superpowers, even though Italy are not quite the force they once were, both teams’ defensive records suggest the scoreline will be tight. Betting on under 1.5 goals going in will bag you 5/4 at Totesport and that is a realistic outcome.
Spain are the favourites and should progress, but they are not infallible as their tie with Croatia proved. If Italy can ensure a good supply of deliveries to Graziano Pellè, the big Southampton striker certainly has the ability to muscle his way in and hit the back of the net, making 15/2 from Paddy Power on him being first goalscorer worth a look. If you think Italy can sneak a lead and then shut up shop, the same bookie also has 8/1 on Pellè to score and Italy to win.
Realistically though, Spain to win 1-0 seems eminently sensible and, with BetVictor offering 22/5 on it, certainly worth a punt.
- Sports.net’s top tip - Spain to win 1-0 at 22/5 at BetVictor
Please note that odds may fluctuate in the lead up to kick off.