How the Bookies See It
- Outright Winner: Carl Frampton 1/100, Horacio Garcia 20/1, Draw 25/1 – Sky Bet
- Fight to Go the Distance: Yes 7/4, No 2/5 – Ladbrokes
- Either Fighter Wins: Rounds 1-5: 15/8, Rounds 6-10 5/4 – Sky Bet
- Colin ‘The Jackal’ Frampton had expected to bounce back from his January defeat at the hands of Leo Santa Cruz by facing Andres ‘Jaguar’ Gutierrez in July, but that fight was called off after Frampton first weighed in 1lb over and then Gutierrez slipped in the shower and injured himself. The British number one has since parted ways with his previous manager, Barry McGuigan, and is now with Frank Warren. The coming match against Garcia is intended to prepare the way for a world title fight in 2018, and Frampton will come here with 23 wins and a single loss to his credit. He has won a total of 14 fights by KO or TKO, and has fought 152 rounds, for an average of 6.33 rounds per fight.
- Horacio ‘Violento’ Garcia, at 27 years of age, is three years younger than 30-year-old Frampton, but has fought more fights at a professional level, with 33 wins, 3 losses and 1 draw. All of his losses have been arrived at by unanimous decision, and 24 of his wins were achieved by KO or TKO. Garcia will come here on the back of a TKO victory over Diuhl Olguin at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas in September, and that followed a loss to the same fighter two months earlier. Garcia has fought 196 bouts over his 37 matches, for an average of 5.29 rounds per fight.
As we said in our opening comments, the bookmakers have Carl Frampton installed at the very short-priced favourite to win this match, but whilst Frampton’s record is impressive, we aren’t sure that they are impressive enough to warrant the paltry odds available. Frampton’s camp requested this fight to be restricted to 10 rounds due to him having had a difficult year, and he hasn’t tasted victory since July 2016, when he beat Leo Santa Cruz in their first fight together.
For bettors looking for reasons to oppose Frampton, there is a lot to like about Garcia. The Mexican is three years younger, has fought more rounds, has a lower round-per-fight average, has a higher percentage of wins by KO or TKO, stands an inch taller and has a reach that is three inches longer. Given those facts, a bet on an outright win by Frampton is fairly easy to argue against, and we would therefore be inclined to look for much better value elsewhere.
Frampton is the British number one, and a former world champion in both the super-bantamweight and featherweight divisions, so we won’t seek value by opposing him. Instead, we will take a punt on the match making it beyond five rounds, and bet on either fighter winning in rounds 6 to 10.
- Sports.net’s Top Tip – Either Fighter to win in Rounds 6-10 – 5/4 with Sky Bet
*Please note, odds may fluctuate in the lead-up to the fight.