How the Bookies See it:
- Winner: Scunthorpe 6/4, Millwall 7/4, Draw 23/10 - Bet365
- Half Time/Full Time: Scunthorpe/Scunthorpe 10/3, Millwall/Millwall 18/5, Draw/Scunthorpe 11/2 - BetVictor
- Correct Score: 1-1 5/1, Scunthorpe 1-0 7/1, Millwall 1-0 7/1 - Sky Bet
- Scunthorpe United will be the happier of the two sides after the first leg, having successfully soaked up everything the home attack could throw at them on Thursday night. Iron defenders Jordan Clarke and David Mirfin impressed as they coolly dealt with a host of loose balls in the visitors’ area during a game where chances were few and far between.
- Millwall striker Lee Gregory could live to rue squandering the best scoring opportunity of the night, finding himself one-on-one with visiting keeper Joe Anyon after latching on to Jed Wallace’s pinpoint through ball, only to fire directly at the grateful stopper.
- Scunthorpe boast League One’s second-best home record, behind champions Sheffield United, having won 14, drawn six and lost just three at Glanford Park this term. Millwall have experienced mixed fortunes on their travels, winning seven, drawing seven and losing nine times away from the Den, leaving them tenth in terms of away form.
There’s no doubt that Scunthorpe feel much more comfortable in front of their own crowd and are quick to exploit gaps left at the back by teams who come to attack them. Millwall will certainly have to take the game to United if they are to progress to Wembley, which should ensure this is much more of a spectacle than the first leg. You’ll find 21/20 at Bet365 on there being more than 2.5 goals and BetVictor has 27/10 on there being more than 3.5 - a real possibility if someone takes an early lead and the caution of the first 90 minutes is quickly thrown to the wind.
It will be interesting to see how home boss Graham Alexander shuffles his pack for the second leg, having played it safe with a strong, defensive side for the London tie. The Iron had just one shot on target on Thursday night, so he might consider calling on nippy winger Duane Holmes or Dutch striker Kevin Van Veen in an attempt to break down the Lions.
If he sticks with Thursday’s playbook, you can get 5/1 at Sky Bet on the tie being won in extra time and the same odds on penalties deciding who makes it through. If you would like to specify the club you think will prevail in 120 minutes or from the spot, the bookie has 11/1 on both. However, a more attacking Iron team are worth a look at 6/4 from Bet365 to do the job in 90 minutes and go on to meet Fleetwood or Bradford at the national stadium.
Millwall are not to be discounted out-of-hand, though, especially considering the hard time veteran striker Steve Morison gave the Scunthorpe defence in south London. Now in his third spell with the Lions, the 33-year-old’s physicality is a key part of his side’s attacking strategy and he is more than capable of creating openings from nothing for himself and teammates. Forward Aiden O’Brien will be chomping at the bit for more game time on Sunday evening after only being introduced to the action in the 74th minute of the home leg. His 15 goals this season have been crucial in Millwall’s play-off push and he could cause the Iron some problems.
Unless there is an early goal, this game is likely to stay tight until half time, before exploding into life as both teams look to deliver the killer blow. Scunthorpe should have just too much for the visitors, knowing as they do how to make the most of one of the narrowest pitches in the league and, as such, Betfred’s 11/2 on it to be all square at half time before the home side snatch a win is good value.
- Sports.net’s Top Tip: Draw/Scunthorpe for Half Time/Full Time at 11/2 with Betfred
*Please note, odds may fluctuate.