EU Referendum Betting: Which Country Will Be Next to Vote?

Updated Thursday 21st February 2019, 02:46 PM

The UK’s decision to vote out of the European Union has sparked speculation about which country could be the next to hold its own referendum. No country had ever decided to leave the EU before the momentous events of Thursday night and Friday morning, which produced an unexpected outcome and prompted David Cameron to stand down as Prime Minister.

As bookmakers now consider who might succeed Cameron, there has also been a lot of interest in how this week’s events could set in motion a ripple effect throughout the rest of the continent. Stock markets plummeted around the world in the aftermath of Brexit, while anti-EU campaigners in various nations welcomed the news.

Marine Le Pen, the leader of the National Front in France, has led the calls for other countries to follow the UK’s lead and have referendums, while politicians from the Netherlands, Italy, Sweden and Denmark have also applauded the UK. Beatrix von Storch, from Germany’s Eurosceptic AfD party, has also urged European Parliament President Martin Schulz and European Commission head Jean-Claude Juncker to resign.

While Schulz has insisted that the EU was well-prepared for the possibility of the UK opting out and played down concerns about other nations holding similar votes, the European parliament has called a special session for next Tuesday and bookies are sure to be keeping a close eye on developments over the coming weeks and months as they consider political betting markets, with France and the Netherlands among those possibly set to push for referendums.

There are odds of 3/1 that the British government will hold a referendum for the people of Northern Ireland before the end of 2020 on whether they wish to ‘become part of a fully united Ireland’. The odds of this not happening are rated at 1/5. If such a referendum does go ahead, odds are of 1/8 that the public would vote against a united Ireland. You can also find odds of 8/13 that the Scots will vote for independence if another referendum is held in Scotland before 2050.

The fallout from Brexit is sure to dominate headlines in the UK for some time to come, but the way the rest of Europe reacts will also be engrossing. If you think you know which country might be the next to leave, whether it is ‘Swexit’ or ‘Frexit’, it is certainly worth keeping an eye on the political betting markets.

Last Updated: Thursday, 21 February 2019 02:46:45+00:00
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