Next Labour and UKIP Leaders Betting Preview

Updated Thursday 21st February 2019, 02:33 PM

The sudden announcement by UK Prime Minister Theresa May that she wants to hold a snap election on Thursday 8 June took most people by surprise, but it has also put considerable pressure on the leaders of other political parties to turn the situation to their advantage. Whilst Jeremy Corbyn of Labour and Paul Nuttall of UKIP have both publicly welcomed the proposed election, they both know that if they don’t perform well, their current leadership positions could well be short-lived. So who do the bookmakers think are the most likely prospects to fill their shoes?


  • Keir Starmer became the Labour Member of Parliament for Holborn and St Pancras as a result of the 2015 general election, and was appointed in October 2016 as the Shadow Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union. He was suggested by colleagues as a good candidate to stand for leader of the Labour party in 2015, but declined to put himself forward at that time.
  • Clive Lewis has been the Member of Parliament for Norwich South since the 2015 general election, and was appointed the Shadow Secretary of State for Defence in June 2016. Jeremy Corbyn’s reshuffle of the Shadow Cabinet saw Lewis become the Shadow Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy in October 2016, but he stepped down from that role in February of this year as a protest against Labour Party MPs being whipped into voting for the triggering of Article 50.
  • David Miliband is the brother of former Labour Party leader Ed Miliband, and has more political experience than both Starmer and Lewis. He was Member of Parliament for South Shields from 2001 to 2013, and has held numerous Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet posts under Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and Harriet Harman. 
  • Nigel Farage has been involved in the UK Independence Party since its beginning, and became leader in 2006. He stepped down in 2009, but returned as leader in 2010. He then resigned in 2015, but his resignation was turned down and he continued as leader, playing a pivotal role in making the case for the UK leaving the EU. He resigned in July 2016, but has continued to make headlines, most recently by offering his support and advice to Donald Trump in his campaign to become the President of the USA.
  • Arron Banks is a political donor who switched allegiance from the Conservative Party to UKIP in 2014. He was a prominent supporter of leaving the EU, and co-founded the Leave.EU organisation which promoted the same.
  • Suzanne Evans has been involved in UKIP since 2013, when she resigned from the Conservative Party due to internal differences. She was Deputy Chairwoman of UKIP between August 2014 and February 2016, and after a six month suspension from the party, she ran for leadership in November 2016. She is currently the UKIP spokesperson for Health.’s View

It is always difficult the predict the next leader of a political party, but particularly so when it is not known when any leadership election will take place. The choice of leader made by a party is often dependent on the situation in which it stands at the time of the election, so for betting purposes we must assume that both parties have fared badly in the proposed general election, and will be looking to reinvent themselves for the next one.

In that scenario, we think that David Miliband could be a popular choice amongst Labour Party members if they want to try and return to the kind of party they were a decade or so ago, but it is not at all certain that Miliband would be up for the job. If he wasn’t in the running, we think that Keir Starmer would be the best candidate for betting purposes.

As far as the UKIP leadership is concerned, Nigel Farage looks like the most likely choice. Farage and UKIP are synonymous in the eyes of many, and it wouldn’t surprise us in the least if he were to return to ‘save’ the party at some point. Arron Banks is viewed more as a donor than an actual politician, and Suzanne Evans has already stood for leadership and lost, so we will side with Farage as our speculative bet on the next UKIP leader.

  •’s Top Tip: Nigel Farage to be the Next Permanent Leader of UKIP After Paul Nuttall – 15/8 

*Please note, odds may fluctuate.

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Last Updated: Thursday, 21 February 2019 02:33:29+00:00
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