Only two points separate Southampton and Burnley in the Premier League table, but bookmakers have unanimously installed the home side as the hot favourites to win this weekend, and for good reason…
How the Bookies See it:
- Winner: Southampton 2/5, Draw 15/4, Burnley 8/1 – Ladbrokes
- Both Teams to Score: Yes 11/10, No 4/6 – Paddy Power
- Half-Time/Full-Time: Southampton/Southampton 10/11, Draw/Southampton 11/4, Draw/Draw 11/2 – Sky Bet
- Southampton are 10th in the Premier League table with nine points. They have won two, drawn three and lost two league matches this season, scoring seven goals and conceding six. Southampton visited Leicester in their most recent match on 2nd October, which ended as a goalless draw. Prior to that, the team had secured a 3-0 away win over West Ham and a 1-0 home win over Swansea. The team has also been performing well in non-Premiership matches of late, holding Hapoel Beer Sheva to a 0-0 draw in their UEFA Europa League match on the 29th of September and beating Crystal Palace 2-0 in their English Football League Cup match on the 21st of September.
- Burnley have earned seven points this season, thanks to two wins, one draw and four losses, and that puts the team in 14th place in the league table. Prior to their loss to Arsenal by a single last-minute goal, they beat Watford 2-0 on the 26th of September, and were beaten 3-0 when visiting Leicester on the 17th of September. Burnley have scored five goals from their seven league games this season, and have conceded nine.
Although Southampton and Burnley are separated by only two points in the table, a closer inspection of the form reveals that there is a big difference in the way both teams perform when playing at home and away. Southampton have earned five of their points at home and another four when playing away, whilst Burnley have yet to earn any points away from home. Another fact worth considering is that Burnley has established a habit of being behind at half-time when playing away from home, and usually of being no better off at full time.
Both of these patterns could prove key this weekend, and the odds-makers will have undoubtedly taken them into consideration before offering Southampton at such a short price. It is the short price which dissuades us from tipping Southampton for a straight home win, so we will instead bet on a draw within the first 45 minutes and Southampton coming out on top when the final whistle is blown.
- Sports.net’s top tip: Draw/Southampton for Half-Time/Full-Time – 11/4 with SkyBet
*Please note that odds may fluctuate in the run-up to kick-off.